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To Ireland NewsAn Opinionated Overview of Irish News of Importance to Folks Moving Here.
May 2008
In This Issue: Ireland’s New Boss ; The Economy – An Unhealthy Cocktail; Housing – Down and Up for Mom and Dad; Fighting Inflation; Murder Capital of Europe; Brand Ireland; The Ryder Cup Hit; 16 Sights Before You Die
MEET THE NEW BOSS
Hold your breath! Here he comes… Brian Cowen, the soon to be Taoiseach/Prime Minister of Ireland.
Last issue, I wondered how long Taoiseach Bertie Ahern could last before he had to “bail out.” As it turned out, Bertie’s financial improbabilities propelled him to resign one day after my newsletter went out.
Breathe.
With predictive insight like I have already displayed, you and the rest of the world are surely waiting with baited breath for my forecast about Bertie’s successor.
Breathe.
Brian Cowen comes from the Irish midlands and his father was also a government minister. Cowen is widely regarded as a “safe pair of hands.” The proof is that he held the Health portfolio without committing political suicide. This, in itself, is a remarkable achievement.
He has been Minister of numerous government agencies – Labour, Transport, Energy, Communications, Foreign Affairs. He has presided over three budgets as Minister of Finance and so far it hasn’t all unravelled on him.
He enters office with the collective good will of the Irish people. His party colleagues, as ambitious a group as can be found on this island, elected him without opposition. He takes up his new office on the 6th of May.
EXHALE…
But… he’s not Brian. Where everyone called the former Taoiseach by his first name, not many will so designate Cowen. He will not be cocooned by the unerring ‘man-of-the-people’ touch that Bertie so effortlessly displayed.
And… he faces an economy that is faltering. The government can’t hand out any more tax cut goodies while revenue is falling. It will be at least another year, the experts say, before finances improve.
Most important, wage talks are in full swing. Cowen is urging restraint on workers. Ireland, he argues, must not damage whatever is left of its competitiveness.
Yet, Cowen has publicly stated numerous times that he will accept the huge salary increase awarded to government ministers by an independent commission. It is absolutely clear to everyone in Ireland except Cowen that accepting this unwarranted largesse will paint him as a hypocrite.
So, it doesn’t take a magic 8 ball or the prescience of the fabled author of this newsletter to predict that Cowen’s government will fail miserably if he accepts the proffered pay packet.
Turn it down, Brian, or we’ll be looking for a new Taoiseach inside of 18 months.
You may exhale now.
THE UNHEALTHY COCKTAIL
Ireland has the highest binge drinking rate in Europe. So, it’s natural for a respected economist to compare the nation’s economic well being to a mixed drink.
Economist Dermot O’Leary – http://www.goodbody.ie - says Ireland is imbibing an 'unhealthy cocktail' - a stronger euro, the credit crisis, persistent inflation and a property slowdown. Like every other expert, he still expects growth, but it will be sluggish. The expected growth of about 1pc is a real comedown compared to the Celtic Tiger’s double-digit rates.
Despite it’s high standing in the drinks scene, Ireland is a mere ice cube in the global economic punchbowl. We can’t affect the Euro exchange rate, the health of international credit markets, the rising price of oil and food or the high interest rates set by the European Central Bank.
The fate of ice cubes is to melt.
And the fate of Irish binge drinkers is yet another watered down round of government actions. This time, there will be slightly increased police powers, a pious finger wag at drinks industry advertising and a new requirement that stores push their drug behind the counter or in a separate section of the store.
MOM, POP AND THE LITTLE MUGGINS
House prices are roughly back where they were in early 2006. In the first six months of that year, an extraordinary bubble pushed prices 20pc higher.
The biggest fall has been for three-bed semi-detached houses in the sprawling new suburbs surrounding Dublin. You can follow the ups and downs at http://IrishPropertyWatch.com that monitors house prices throughout Ireland.
No matter the fallback, Mom and Dad have no complaints. The value of all homes in Ireland rose fourfold in the past decade. During that period 547,000 houses were built and in total, they are now worth 412 billion euro. That means that the 4 million of us living in Ireland earned, on average, an additional 100,000 for our homes.
Of course, all you youngsters who were too young to own houses in 1997 got scrooched. Thanks, kids, for the biggest inter-generational transfer of wealth in human history.
And, we’ll continue to beat on ya. Not only are rents rising at an annual rate nearly triple inflation, but Irish banks have adopted a new motto: “Neither a borrower nor a lender be.” No more 100pc home loans for the likes of ye!
You’ll have to raise 20pc in cash before we let you take advantage of these more reasonable house prices. Let’s see now… the average Irish house in February cost 254,697 euro. Dublin figures came in closer to 380,000 euro.
Hmmm, multiply by the number of digits on Brian Cowen’s hands and toes, add the bank executive’s performance bonus, make sure there’s some money in there for stamp duty tax…
Yikes! You have to raise more than 50,000 Euro in cash! Ye gods, where will you get that much money?
Mom, Dad! Help!
DEALING WITH INFLATION
One economist I heard on the radio suggested that the only way most of us can deal with inflation sans pay hikes is to cut back.
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels were up more than 12pc this past year, so there’s the first thing to go. Food was up 9pc, so that’s second. Education, health and transport were all up near the 6pc inflation mark, so they’ll face cutbacks as well.
Happily, clothing and footwear fell by more than 3pc. Feel free to buy shoes.
THE ‘MURDER CAPITAL’ OF EUROPE
Most wars in tribal New Guinea start “as a dispute over pigs or women.” Pigs are really a form of money and status, explains the author of a New Yorker magazine article on revenge killings amongst New Guinea Highlanders - http://www.newyorker.com.
Ireland’s most infamous feud began for the same reasons – women and money. It’s been a while since pigs were a major currency here. But, a coalition of Limerick families control a resource more profitable even than pork – Ecstasy and Cocaine.
The bad blood began, it is said, when the daughters of two of the families had a schoolyard fight. One of the girls had her ear bitten off. The next day the other girl was set upon by female relatives of the first girl and the initial ‘S’ was carved on her face with a Stanley knife.
That was in the late Nineties. There are now seven active gangland feuds in the city. All involve former gang members who have fallen out and become deadly enemies. The latest twist is a good example of the craziness. One young guy drove the car during a hit of a rival gang member. His own crime bosses then killed him to make sure he couldn’t implicate them if the Gardai/Police questioned him. Now, there’s another feud with his surviving family members.
There have been additional police assigned to the city and there’s a major urban renewal effort gearing up. Nonetheless, the gangland feuds have resulted in the highest per capita murder rate in western Europe. A former put-down of Limerick was to call it “Stab City”. That’s been updated to “Slab City”.
Much of Limerick and its suburbs are peaceful and most locals defend their city’s reputation fiercely. I always find it a pleasant place to visit and college kids love it. A high visibility local, Minister of Defence Willie O’Dea, maintains that the vast majority of people in Limerick know nothing about the people involved. The violence, he says, does not impinge on the normal life of the city.
If so, it really is a tale of two cities. You do NOT want to rent or buy property in the hardest hit areas like Moyross and Southhill, Ballynanty and Kileely.
‘BRAND IRELAND’
‘Brand Ireland’ is the travel industry’s euphemism for green fields, moss covered stone walls and friendly chat over a Guinness at some local pub.
But, you’ll never hear marketing gurus boasting about Ireland’s sheep. It’s always business blather. ‘We offer a strong product with excellent branding.’
Cheap and cheerful – that’s what Irish visitors want during their Irish break. In March, the users of the well-known travel site tripadvisor.com voted Ireland the friendliest destination. So, the island scores well on the cheerful part. http://www.tripadvisor.com
But cheap? Ireland’s two key tourism markets are the US and UK and both their currencies are slipping against the Euro. So, it’s remarkable that the industry still predicts a 6-7pc growth in visitor numbers this year.
Last year nearly 8 million people visited Ireland. Five million came from the US, 1 million from the UK. Tourism employed a quarter million people, spun revenues of more than 6.5 billion euro and accounted for 4 pc of the Republic’s gross national product.
So, those of you living anyplace else on the planet can expect to see plenty of media “advertorials” and pretty pictures of a far green country. There’s a whole bunch of us counting on you to pay a visit.
GOLF PRODUCT
The visitors most desired are golfers. Golfers are a monied breed who pay hefty greens fees for the privilege of driving little white balls into the Irish Sea. Ya gotta love ‘em.
Ireland offers 440 courses, most of championship calibre and some absolutely world class. Everyone from Tiger Woods to Bill Clinton has played here.
The Tourist Board’s golf website is a decent place to get a look at Irish courses - http://www.golf.ireland.ie . Golf Vacations Ireland highlights the courses that are generally conceded to be the best of the best - http://www.golf-irl.com
The tourism gurus cite the 2006 Ryder Cup as an example of the lucrative international sporting events they want to hook. The Ryder Cup generated nearly a quarter billion euro for the Irish economy. Unfortunately, the K Club Golf Course which hosted the big event – http://www.kclub.com - lost more than 4 million euro that year. Cheap it wasn’t and cheerful they ain’t.
16 IRISH SIGHTS BEFORE YOU DIE
A new book titled “1001 Historic Sites You Must See Before You Die” lists 16 Irish to-die-before places:
You’ll note that the list is Dublin-centric. I’d make a few amendments, myself. Skellig Michael, the amazing early medieval monastic centre located on a rocky island off County Kerry is one of only two UNESCO World Heritage Sites in Ireland – the other is Newgrange. It didn’t make the list.
The Emerald Isle is dotted with major castles easily as picturesque as Blarney and only lacking the tourist buses to bring them to the travel writers’ attention. Yeats’ grave used to be quietly evocative. Now it sits immediately beside a noisy highway. The government is ripping up Tara to put in a highway.
Glendalough in Wicklow is not on the list despite its great natural beauty and well-preserved ancient monastic settlement. None of the spectacular “Big Houses” that dot the Irish hinterland are mentioned.
Quibble, quibble. Everyone’s list will differ in details. Suggestions are invited on the Move To Ireland bulletin board –http://members3.boardhost.com/ambit2/msg/1209540038.html
Scott
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